After entering December, the RMB changed its fatigue throughout the year. After yesterday's strong recovery of the 6.88 mark, the highest closing price since mid November, the offshore RMB (CNH) continued to rise today, once breaking 6.87 to 6.8688.

The central bank also raised the RMB central parity by 164 points to 6.8794 today, the strongest since November 22. It closed at 6.8949 at 16:30 yesterday and closed at 6.8865 at night.

Since the 811 new exchange rate reform last year, the RMB has entered a long correction Road, and the pressure of capital outflow is also increasing. After trump was unexpectedly elected president of the United States in November, the sharp appreciation of the US dollar increased the downward pressure on the RMB. The onshore RMB depreciated by 1.85% in the month, the lowest since June 2008. However, Yi Gang, vice governor of the Central Bank of China, said in an exclusive interview with Xinhua that the RMB still shows the characteristics of a stable and strong currency in the global monetary system. Although China's foreign exchange reserves have declined recently, they still rank first in the world and are very sufficient.

In fact, recently, the regulatory authorities have issued a series of measures to find and fill the loopholes of non-compliance outflow under the capital account. However, the current policy of individual purchase and payment of foreign exchange has not changed. Next year, domestic individuals can still buy foreign exchange equivalent to US $50000 per year with their ID cards.

Earlier, Sina quoted foreign media sources as saying that after the central bank asked banks to be vigilant about the outflow of funds through the Shanghai free trade zone through false overseas investment, it has issued a document requiring domestic enterprises to implement the macro Prudential Management of the integration of domestic and foreign currencies in their RMB overseas lending business, and asked the handling bank and lenders to control the amount.

CICC said in the research report that the RMB outflow has increased significantly in the past year and has become an important channel for capital outflow. Facing the impact of RMB cross-border flow, the central bank may strengthen the management of RMB outflow and bring it into the macro prudential regulatory framework of domestic and foreign currency integration. This may have a certain short-term impact on the development of the offshore RMB market.

Since May, the deficit of foreign exchange settlement and sales by Chinese banks on behalf of customers has averaged about US $24 billion per month. ANZ said in its report that as it became more and more difficult to purchase foreign exchange on shore, mainland residents transferred RMB abroad for foreign exchange. Therefore, the offshore market will face stronger pressure of RMB devaluation.

Yesterday, Hong Kong's overnight RMB interbank offered rate (HIBOR) rose to a new high of 4.818% in more than two months. In response, the Hong Kong Economic Daily reported that Hong Kong banks raised interest rates to attract RMB deposits.

"If the depreciation rate of RMB is too fast, the market will worry about the sharp depreciation of RMB, which may also bring further impact on the market. Therefore, managed depreciation is still the core goal of the central bank. Therefore, after the recent rapid depreciation, the central bank will consider re managing market expectations." Zhou Hao, senior Asian economist of German commercial bank, said at the information summit.

He believes that the central bank seems to prefer to act in December, because it is easier to act at this time because of the strong holiday atmosphere around Christmas, light trading in overseas markets and small trading volume in the whole disk.

Huishi news, December 02 - at 21:30 on Friday (December 2), the United States will release the high-profile November non farm employment report, which will be the last report before the Federal Reserve's meeting from December 13 to 14, and its significance is self-evident. Although market participants believe that the Fed's interest rate hike in December is almost certain, policymakers will still look for evidence of further improvement in the labor market. The latest employment data is more instructive for the degree of monetary policy tightening in 2017. Recently, the US dollar has adjusted after a sharp strengthening. If the non-agricultural report performs strongly, it is expected to provide "firepower" to us dollar bulls again, and the price of gold is afraid to fall further.

The US employment report in November is expected to show that the US labor market is healthy enough for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later this month.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters predict that the number of non farm payrolls in the United States increased by 175000 in November and 161000 in October. So far this year, the average growth of non farm jobs in the United States has reached 189000.

The survey also shows that the unemployment rate is expected to remain at an 8-year low of 4.9% in November. Wage growth is likely to remain at a seven-year high.

JPMorgan believes that the non farm employment data in November should consolidate the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates in December. With signs that the job market is tightening and the economy continues to grow, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will raise the benchmark interest rate for the first time this year.

Bruce Kasman, David Hensley and Joseph Lupton, economists at JPMorgan Chase, wrote a report on Friday that the U.S. economic data released since the FOMC policy meeting on November 1-2 are good; "We assume that the Fed welcomes market expectations in line with its own internal forecasts.".

JPMorgan Chase expects non farm employment to increase by 200000 in November, "it should almost finalize the interest rate hike in December".

The report points out that even so, the US dollar's trade weighted exchange rate has risen by about 4% since the election, which may raise concerns about the downside risks of the economy and inflation in the first half of 2017, similar to the events that led to the postponement of the Fed's action earlier this year.

The dollar weakened in early trading in Asia on Friday. Investors were cautious before the U.S. employment report, which may set the tone of the market in the coming days. After falling 0.6% last day, the US dollar index is now slightly down to 100.87.

This week, the US dollar took back its recent strong gains. If the non-agricultural sector cannot help, the US dollar is expected to fall against a basket of currencies on the weekly line.

Marc Chandler, global head of foreign exchange strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, said in the Research Report: "the US dollar has a large volume of transactions against most major currencies, but the overall tone is the consolidation trend of the US dollar."

On November 24, the US dollar index hit a 13-and-a-half-year high of 102.05. At that time, the expectation that the United States would expand fiscal expenditure and accelerate the tightening of monetary policy after Donald Trump took office stimulated the sharp rise of the US dollar. However, as other currencies were also boosted by various favorable factors and financial markets took a breather after the sharp rise of the US dollar, the rise of the US dollar subsided.

In early Asian trading on Friday, the USD / JPY fell to around 113.70 and rose to a nearly 10-month high of 114.83 last day.

Analysts pointed out that if the November employment report supports the view of accelerated U.S. economic growth, it may lead to a further rise in the dollar.

Daisuke karakama, market economist at Mizuho bank, said: "the USD / JPY has more room to rise because it fell sharply earlier this year compared with other currencies; the USD / JPY may test the 115 level, depending on the performance of the US employment report."

Bloomberg's chief U.S. economist wrote that the employment data in November will become the primary focus of the economic community in the coming week. Unless this data is extremely bad, it will hardly have an impact on the Fed's fixed rate hike in December. Now, the interest rate hike in December is increasingly seen as a certainty; The employment data will provide market participants with more information on economic activity by the end of the year.

The article points out that since the Federal Reserve is highly likely to increase interest rates in December, which has been reflected in the market trend, the employment data in November lost some of the mystery that affects the market trend. In view of the steady economic growth in the second half of the year, there is basically no reason to predict that there will be a significant deviation in the recent employment trend.

The article believes that in view of the imminent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, this employment data is more instructive for the degree of monetary policy tightening in 2017.

Although the market believes that it is almost certain that the Fed will raise interest rates from December 13 to 14, the focus is turning to next year. The trend of interest rate futures shows that the probability of raising interest rates again before June next year also reaches 65%.

Shaun Osborne, chief foreign exchange strategist of Bank of Nova Scotia in Toronto, said: "the key issue for the dollar in the coming weeks is the Federal Reserve; no matter how the non farm employment data performs, it should be a foregone conclusion to raise interest rates in December, and any change in the dot matrix will be crucial."

Osborne expects the dollar to strengthen further and expects the fed to raise interest rates three times next year.

With regard to this employment report, the Wall Street Journal published five key points to pay attention to:

1. Monthly employment data

So far this year, the average number of new jobs per month has reached 181000. However, the performance was inconsistent. It once fell to 14000 in May and rose sharply to 271000 in June. If the data is close to 180000, it will show that the pace of recruitment is steady and the employment is one step closer to the full employment goal of the Federal Reserve.

2. Salary growth

In October, the hourly wage of private sector workers increased by 2.8% compared with a year ago, the fastest growth rate since the recession. This increase outpaces inflation and increases household spending, which is expected to contribute to sustained growth in the broader economy. It also shows that as the job market tightens, workers can ask employers for a raise.

3. Unemployment

This year, the unemployment rate fell to near pre recession levels, indicating that Americans who want to work can find jobs. But broader indicators, including those forced to take part-time jobs and those who give up looking for jobs, remain high, suggesting that there is still idle in the job market.

4. Labor force participation rate

One of the most worrying developments in recent years has been the decline in the labour force participation rate. The decline is partly due to the retirement age of baby boomers. However, the participation rate of adult workers aged 25 to 54 also declined, and once fell to the lowest level in 30 years in late 2015. Since then, with the steady increase of jobs and the rise of wages, this proportion has continued to rise, but it is still suppressed. Another rise in this proportion will show that the continuous improvement of the job market has attracted more and more onlookers to return to the employment force.

5. The weather is fine

Remember hurricane Matthew? Daniel silver, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, pointed out in a report: "we believe that the hurricane may reduce employment by about 30000-40000 in October. Returning to less destructive weather will promote a similar increase in employment in November." it will be a significant change and may help increase employment in November.

In the just concluded Austrian presidential election, the leader of the anti immigrant far right Liberal Party failed to win a majority. After Trump's election, the pro EU camp received good news at a time when the fear of Europe's election of anti integration leaders moving towards division intensified.

On the evening of last Sunday local time, the Austrian Ministry of the interior said that although the final statistical results could not be obtained until Monday, most of the votes counted on Sunday showed that van der Bellen, a left-wing independent candidate and former leader of the Green Party (above, right), received 53.3% of the votes. Norbert Hofer (above, left), leader of the far right Liberal Party, has admitted defeat.

This result is obviously stronger than the previous general election. Polls show that Hofer and van der Bellen will have very close support rates. In the second round of presidential voting in May this year, van der Bellen only got 31000 more votes than Hofer, with a support rate of less than 1%. In the re-election due to Hofer's query of vote counting, van der Bellen's support rate was at least 7 percentage points higher.

In the first round of this year's election, Hofer won 36.4% of the votes, which made people worry that Western Europe would give birth to the first extreme right-wing leader after World War II. After trump was elected president of the United States, many people are more worried that the anti establishment trend of populism may sweep the European political arena.

If Hofer wins the election, it will add fuel to the already surging extreme right-wing activities on the European continent. Geert Wilders, chairman of the Dutch far right Liberal Party, promised to hold a referendum on brexit in China after the British referendum on brexit this year. Marine Le Pen, leader of France's far right "National Front", who will participate in the presidential election next year, is also an openly anti EU politician.

After the news that van der Bellen was locked in the victory, mainstream politicians in neighboring Germany congratulated him. The official twitter account of the German Foreign Ministry said: "the whole of Europe has breathed a sigh of relief." Sigmar Gabriel, Deputy Prime Minister of Germany and leader of the center left Social Democratic Party, also said that all Europeans have removed their big stones.

European Council president tusk also sent a letter congratulating van der Bellen on his election, wishing him every success in his presidential term, saying that Austria is facing many difficult challenges, and Austria's constructive contribution to the common European solution and the maintenance of European unity remain crucial.

Van der Bellen, 72, is a retired professor of economics and former chairman of the Green Party Parliament. He ran as an independent in January this year and was supported by the green party. He once commented that Trump's campaign style and attacks on women were unacceptable. In terms of immigration, he said he hoped that Austria would be a free country affected by multiple cultures and opposed the removal of old borders.

Hofer is 45 years old. He had previously carried out publicity activities on the anti immigration platform, saying that Germany's decision to open the door to immigrants had made a big mistake, and the whole EU, including Austria, had paid a huge price for it. He suggested that Austria could follow the example of Britain in holding a referendum on brexit, but later softened his attitude and said that it would change the EU into a pure economic union.

The following chart of the European Policy Research Center, a think-tank, shows that since joining the EU in 1994, Austria's domestic forces in Europe have always prevailed. In April and may this year, 60% of those who stayed in Europe and about 30% of those who withdrew from Europe.

Early voting results showed that the opposition led by up to 20 points in Italy's constitutional referendum. Prime Minister Renzi admitted his failure, said he was fully responsible for it and would resign. Affected by this, the euro plunged and gold and the yen rose sharply.

Renzi said in a televised speech that the results have been obvious. Today, the Italian people have expressed their wishes. He said:

The referendum is a great symbol of democracy. We gave the Italian people a chance to change, but it didn't succeed. Congratulations to the opposition on winning the referendum.

I have done my best at this stage and will leave without regret.

I will submit my resignation to the president and my government will come to an end here.

During his speech, the decline of the euro against the US dollar expanded to more than 1.4% to 1.0509, the lowest since March 2015; S & P 500 futures fell 0.4%; The yen rose 0.3% against the US dollar; Spot gold rose about $6, or 0.5%, to $1184.08 at the beginning of the Asian market.

IPR export poll shows that the proportion of negative votes is 54% - 58%; In the EMG export poll, the negative vote accounts for about 55% - 59%; In the rai export poll, the negative vote accounts for 54% - 58%.

Before the referendum, Renzi said that once the Italian people opposed the constitutional amendment, he would announce his resignation. Renzi's resignation is likely to lead to the collapse of the current government, and all political parties need to coordinate to form a new government.

The market is worried that the Populist Party "five-star movement" may have the opportunity to come to power at that time. Such parties may not only call on Italy to withdraw from the EU, but even advocate withdrawing from the eurozone.

Wall Street has seen and heard that the referendum originated from the constitutional reform plan proposed by Lenzi in September. Because the Italian cabinet is restricted by the parliament, and the Senate and the house of representatives have equal rights, any bill must be approved by both houses at the same time. Not only is the process time-consuming and laborious, but it has also led to long-term political instability in the country, which has experienced more than 60 governments since 1945.

Therefore, Renzi suggested amending the constitution to deprive the Senate of the right to participate in politics, reduce the number of senators from 315 to 100, and reduce the main legislative rights of the Senate, so as to seek to greatly expand the voice of the cabinet, more effectively pass various legislation and new policies in parliament, and then effectively promote structural reform.

Since it was not passed by two-thirds of the members of Parliament, the above constitutional amendment bill needs to be passed by referendum before it can become a formal law.