Yesterday's comprehensive review:

On Thursday (November 24), the strong US economic data strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate hike in December and pushed the US dollar to a new high of nearly 14 years, and the gold price further fell to the lowest level in nine and a half months.

At 23:18 Beijing time on Thursday, the spot gold price fell 0.1% to US $1186.60/oz; U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $1186.40 an ounce due to the closure of Thanksgiving and light trading in the U.S. market. Spot silver fell 0.6% to $16.25 an ounce, falling to its lowest level since June yesterday. The Intercontinental Exchange (ice) dollar index rose to its highest level in nearly 14 years on Wednesday and further strengthened. It broke through the 102 mark on Thursday, but then fell back.

International oil prices remained almost unchanged on Thursday, and the market waited for the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to meet next week to discuss the implementation of its production restriction plan. Brent crude oil January futures closed up $0.05 to $49.00 a barrel on Thursday; Us WTI crude oil futures for January rose US $0.02 to US $47.98 a barrel. Traders said investors were reluctant to make large bets because of light market trading during the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States and uncertainty about OPEC's plan to reduce production. In addition, the US dollar index broke through 102 and reached a new high in 13.5 years, which also put pressure on oil prices.

New market outlook:

Europe and America (1-hour chart line)

Due to the light trading in the Thanksgiving market, the fluctuation range in Europe and the United States is small, the dollar continues to be strong and hit a new high, and it is more likely that Europe and the United States will continue to decline in the future. The recent trading ideas remain mainly short, focusing on the support role of the early low point. Empty orders focus on the pressure position near 1.0656, and more orders focus on the support position near 1.0447.

2. Pound us (1-hour chart line)

The pound and the United States are also affected by Thanksgiving to maintain a narrow fluctuation. At present, the pound and the United States are also in a relatively stable state, with obvious upper pressure and lower support. It is possible to maintain this wide fluctuation in the short term. The operation idea is mainly interval oscillation, with empty single focusing on the pressure position near 1.2468 and multi single focusing on the support position near 1.2312.

3. Crude oil (1-hour chart line)

There was little change in crude oil price yesterday, which was mainly affected by the light trading on Thanksgiving Day. It is more likely that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate in the range. It is necessary to guide the direction whether the production reduction agreement can be reached in the end. The operation idea is mainly interval oscillation, with empty single focusing on the pressure position near 49.61 and multi single focusing on the support position near 47.14.

4. Gold (1-hour chart line)

Gold continued its downward trend yesterday, and the US dollar index reached a new high. The pressure on gold prices remains the same, and there is no significant change in the short term. The operation idea is mainly to vibrate and empty and wait for effective support. The empty single pays attention to the pressure position near 1191.9 and the multi single pays attention to the support position near 1157.2.

5. Silver (1-hour chart line)

The trend of silver yesterday was dominated by weak shocks, and the suppression effect of the US dollar was obvious. It is more likely to maintain the shock downward in the future. The operation idea is dominated by shock downward, and pay attention to the make-up decline. Empty orders pay attention to the pressure position near 16.43 and many orders pay attention to the support position near 15.91.

Focus on data today:

Friday, November 25, 2016

① 07:30 Japan's annual core CPI rate in October and Japan's annual core CPI rate in October

② 17:30 UK third quarter GDP annual rate correction

③ 19:00 UK November CBI retail sales margin

④ 22:45 initial PMI value of Markit service industry in the United States in November

Risk tips:

Foreign exchange transactions, contracts for differences and other margin transactions have high risks and are not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level and risk tolerance. You may lose some or all of your money. Traders should clearly understand all risks associated with margin trading. If you have any questions, you can consult an independent financial adviser if necessary. The information of the consulting product comes from public data, and strive to make the content of the consulting product objective and fair. However, the views, conclusions and suggestions in this paper are only for reference.

Yesterday's comprehensive review:

Due to the overall good performance of the U.S. economy and the expected increase in economic growth, Fed chairman Yellen joined hands with several colleagues to make hawkish remarks last week, and the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in December also soared. On Monday, federal funds rate futures showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in December once reached 100%.

On Monday (November 21), gold, which fell to a nine month low last week, had a short respite because the momentum of the US dollar singing all the way slowed down. The price of gold futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at US $1209.80/oz, up 0.1%, hitting a high of US $1217.80/oz. The price of silver futures for December delivery closed at US $16.521/oz, down 0.6%.

British Prime Minister Theresa May said on Monday that she understood the concerns of enterprises and was worried that Britain might encounter "cliff like" drastic changes after the formal brexit negotiations with the EU. She would deal with these concerns in the brexit negotiations. This had no immediate impact on the pound until the pound surged a full $0.01 in less than a minute after American investors entered the market during the London lunch break. Many banks began to believe that the pound has stabilized. For the UK's huge external deficit and most of the risks brought by the brexit referendum in June, the 20% decline recorded by the pound since December last year may be enough.

Crude oil futures prices closed at a three week high on Monday. Due to the decline of the US dollar and some progress made in the meeting of the technical committee of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), although the production reduction targets of various countries have not been clarified at the meeting, it has increased the probability of implementing the production restriction agreement at the Vienna meeting at the end of November, which has increased the confidence of crude oil bulls.

WTI futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.80, or 3.9%, to close at $47.79 a barrel, the highest closing price of spot contracts since October 28. After trading on Monday, December WTI futures will expire. WTI futures for January delivery rose $1.88, or 4.1%, to close at $48.24 a barrel. Brent crude oil futures for January delivery on the London Intercontinental Exchange rose $2.04, or 4.4%, to $48.90 a barrel.

New market outlook:

Europe and America (1-hour chart line)

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The trend of Europe and the United States rebounded slightly yesterday. Although the range is limited, it can also explain to a certain extent that the downward momentum is not large. The strength of the US dollar is suspended, non US currencies can breathe, and the possibility of maintaining shock upward in the short term is increased. The operation idea can be changed to focus on rebound, with empty single focusing on the pressure position near 1.0733 and multi single focusing on the support position near 1.0571.

2. Pound us (1-hour chart line)

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The pound and the United States rebounded sharply yesterday. Some moderate statements of the British Prime Minister boosted the pound. Multinational banks believe that the sharp decline in the early stage is enough to reflect the risks brought by brexit, and the pound may continue to rebound in the future. The operation idea can also be changed to rebound, with empty single focusing on the pressure position near 1.2603 and multi single focusing on the support position near 1.2381.

3. Crude oil (1-hour chart line)

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Crude oil rebounded sharply by about 4% yesterday. Affected by the increased probability of implementing the production restriction agreement at the Vienna conference, the oil price rose by nearly $2, which greatly boosted the Bulls' confidence. However, the price has come to a pressure position in the early stage. Whether the subsequent breakthrough can continue depends on the strength of the bulls. The operation idea is mainly shock consolidation in the near future, with empty orders paying attention to the pressure position near 49.61 and multiple orders paying attention to the support position near 47.08.

4. Gold (1-hour chart line)

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Gold rebounded slightly yesterday and continued to fall under the pressure of the US dollar in the near future. In the case of a pause in the strength of the US dollar, the gold price will rebound. The recent operation idea can be changed into shock rise and bargain hunting. Short orders focus on the pressure position near 1232.8 and more orders focus on the support position near 1204.8.

5. Silver (1-hour chart line)

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The trend of silver also rebounded. You can refer to gold for operation ideas. It mainly focuses on shock rise and bargain hunting. Short orders pay attention to the pressure position near 17.19 and multi orders pay attention to the support position near 16.45.

Focus on data today:

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

① 15:00 Swiss October trade account

② 19:00 UK November CBI industrial order difference

③ 21:30 Canadian retail sales rate in September

④ 23:00 Richmond Fed's manufacturing index in November and the total sales of existing homes in October were annualized

⑤ API crude oil inventory for the week from 05:30 the next day to November 18

Risk tips:

Foreign exchange transactions, contracts for differences and other margin transactions have high risks and are not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level and risk tolerance. You may lose some or all of your money. Traders should clearly understand all risks associated with margin trading. If you have any questions, you can consult an independent financial adviser if necessary. The information of the consulting product comes from public data, and strive to make the content of the consulting product objective and fair. However, the views, conclusions and suggestions in this paper are only for reference.

Yesterday's comprehensive review:

On Tuesday (November 29), the United States released a series of beautiful economic data again, but these data have limited support for the dollar. Towards the end of the month, investors continue to make up for the dollar bulls established after trump was elected president. Coupled with the approach of OPEC meeting on Wednesday and non-agricultural data on Friday, the market is also very cautious. In terms of crude oil, just as OPEC is about to meet, Iran and Iraq are still deadlocked with Saudi Arabia. The market is very disappointed and still believes that it is difficult to reach an agreement at this meeting, so the oil price is under pressure, falling by 4%.

The US dollar index fell back to the 101 mark, and investors continued to adjust their positions at this week's OPEC meeting and before non-agricultural. Although a series of economic data released by the United States performed well, the easing of the Italian banking crisis supported the euro and put pressure on the dollar.

Gold prices ended lower in shock, weighed down by good US data and the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates. Gold prices closed lower on Tuesday, as the market expected US interest rates to rise and global economic growth sentiment to improve, which means that investors may favor risky assets such as the stock market. Since then, the gold price has left the intraday low because the US dollar index fell and adjusted.

Oil prices plunged 4%, and the market thought it difficult for OPEC to reach an agreement. Oil prices plunged 4% on Tuesday, and OPEC's plan to reach a production reduction agreement was blocked again. Iran and Iraq were still deadlocked with Saudi Arabia the day before the OPEC meeting.

With the recovery of personal consumption expenditure and government expenditure and the recovery of exports, the US GDP in the third quarter was revised upward to 3.2%, better than expected and initial value, and the growth rate hit a two-year high. Personal consumption expenditure in the United States also rose sharply to 2.8% in the third quarter.

The U.S. Economic Advisory Bureau reported on Tuesday that the U.S. consumer confidence index rose to 107.1 in November, the highest since July 2007. The index hit a 20 month high in September, but fell back to 100.8 in October.

On Tuesday, the S & P / case Schiller national house price index showed that house prices in the United States hit a record high in September, up 0.1% from the last record high recorded in July 2006, ending the worst period experienced by the real estate market since the great depression and releasing a positive signal for a new round of stable expansion.

As in September this year, nine local fed supported raising the discount rate in October. In November last year, the same nine local Federal Reserve agreed to raise the discount rate. At the monetary policy meeting a month later, the Federal Reserve decided to raise interest rates for the first time in nine years.

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve governor Powell said that since the November meeting of the Federal Reserve, the probability of raising interest rates in the United States has increased significantly. This is consistent with the information disclosed in the minutes of the November meeting of the Federal Reserve. At present, the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in December to exceed 95%.

New market outlook:

1. EUR / USD

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Multi space boundary: 1.0645 (blue line)

Trading strategy: under 1.0645, bearish, the target price is 1.0580, and then 1.0538.

Alternative strategy: be bullish above 1.0645, set the target price at 1.0686, and then 1.0739

Technical comments: CCI is at a high level, there is a correction in the short term, and then continue to rise.

2. GBP / USD

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Multi space boundary: 1.2498 (blue line)

Trading strategy: under 1.2498, bearish, the target price is 1.2388, and then 1.2312.

Alternative strategy: above 1.2498, bullish, the target price is set at 1.2539, and then 1.2597.

Technical comments: range shock market, close to the track, operate with caution.

3. USD / JPY

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Multi space boundary: 112.34 (blue line)

Trading strategy: above 112.34, bullish, the target price is 113.18, and then 113.70.

Alternative strategy: under 112.34, bearish, the target price is set at 111.38, and then 110.34.

Technical comments: the running trend of RSI technical indicators is downward and may continue to decline within the day.

4. Gold

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Multi space boundary: 1194.9 (blue line)

Trading strategy: under 1194.9, bearish, the target price is 1181.9, and then 1170.8.

Alternative strategy: above 1194.9, bullish, the target price is set at 1204.0, and then 1217.8.

Technical comments: pay close attention to the key pressure level of 1194.9.

Note: the blue horizontal line in the strategy diagram of this report represents the multi space dividing point; The green horizontal line represents the resistance level; The red horizontal line represents the support position; The black line represents the real-time price when the report is issued.

Risk tips:

Foreign exchange transactions, contracts for differences and other margin transactions have high risks and are not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level and risk tolerance. You may lose some or all of your money. Traders should clearly understand all risks associated with margin trading. If you have any questions, you can consult an independent financial adviser if necessary. The information of the consulting product comes from public data, and strive to make the content of the consulting product objective and fair. However, the views, conclusions and suggestions in this paper are only for reference.

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