Another black swan landed: the Italian referendum failed, the prime minister resigned, and the euro plunged
发表时间:2016-11-01     阅读次数:     字体:【

Early voting results showed that the opposition led by up to 20 points in Italy's constitutional referendum. Prime Minister Renzi admitted his failure, said he was fully responsible for it and would resign. Affected by this, the euro plunged and gold and the yen rose sharply.

Renzi said in a televised speech that the results have been obvious. Today, the Italian people have expressed their wishes. He said:

The referendum is a great symbol of democracy. We gave the Italian people a chance to change, but it didn't succeed. Congratulations to the opposition on winning the referendum.

I have done my best at this stage and will leave without regret.

I will submit my resignation to the president and my government will come to an end here.

During his speech, the decline of the euro against the US dollar expanded to more than 1.4% to 1.0509, the lowest since March 2015; S & P 500 futures fell 0.4%; The yen rose 0.3% against the US dollar; Spot gold rose about $6, or 0.5%, to $1184.08 at the beginning of the Asian market.

IPR export poll shows that the proportion of negative votes is 54% - 58%; In the EMG export poll, the negative vote accounts for about 55% - 59%; In the rai export poll, the negative vote accounts for 54% - 58%.

Before the referendum, Renzi said that once the Italian people opposed the constitutional amendment, he would announce his resignation. Renzi's resignation is likely to lead to the collapse of the current government, and all political parties need to coordinate to form a new government.

The market is worried that the Populist Party "five-star movement" may have the opportunity to come to power at that time. Such parties may not only call on Italy to withdraw from the EU, but even advocate withdrawing from the eurozone.

Wall Street has seen and heard that the referendum originated from the constitutional reform plan proposed by Lenzi in September. Because the Italian cabinet is restricted by the parliament, and the Senate and the house of representatives have equal rights, any bill must be approved by both houses at the same time. Not only is the process time-consuming and laborious, but it has also led to long-term political instability in the country, which has experienced more than 60 governments since 1945.

Therefore, Renzi suggested amending the constitution to deprive the Senate of the right to participate in politics, reduce the number of senators from 315 to 100, and reduce the main legislative rights of the Senate, so as to seek to greatly expand the voice of the cabinet, more effectively pass various legislation and new policies in parliament, and then effectively promote structural reform.

Since it was not passed by two-thirds of the members of Parliament, the above constitutional amendment bill needs to be passed by referendum before it can become a formal law.

 
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