Huishi news, December 02 - at 21:30 on Friday (December 2), the United States will release the high-profile November non farm employment report, which will be the last report before the Federal Reserve's meeting from December 13 to 14, and its significance is self-evident. Although market participants believe that the Fed's interest rate hike in December is almost certain, policymakers will still look for evidence of further improvement in the labor market. The latest employment data is more instructive for the degree of monetary policy tightening in 2017. Recently, the US dollar has adjusted after a sharp strengthening. If the non-agricultural report performs strongly, it is expected to provide "firepower" to us dollar bulls again, and the price of gold is afraid to fall further.

The US employment report in November is expected to show that the US labor market is healthy enough for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later this month.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters predict that the number of non farm payrolls in the United States increased by 175000 in November and 161000 in October. So far this year, the average growth of non farm jobs in the United States has reached 189000.

The survey also shows that the unemployment rate is expected to remain at an 8-year low of 4.9% in November. Wage growth is likely to remain at a seven-year high.

JPMorgan believes that the non farm employment data in November should consolidate the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates in December. With signs that the job market is tightening and the economy continues to grow, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will raise the benchmark interest rate for the first time this year.

Bruce Kasman, David Hensley and Joseph Lupton, economists at JPMorgan Chase, wrote a report on Friday that the U.S. economic data released since the FOMC policy meeting on November 1-2 are good; "We assume that the Fed welcomes market expectations in line with its own internal forecasts.".

JPMorgan Chase expects non farm employment to increase by 200000 in November, "it should almost finalize the interest rate hike in December".

The report points out that even so, the US dollar's trade weighted exchange rate has risen by about 4% since the election, which may raise concerns about the downside risks of the economy and inflation in the first half of 2017, similar to the events that led to the postponement of the Fed's action earlier this year.

The dollar weakened in early trading in Asia on Friday. Investors were cautious before the U.S. employment report, which may set the tone of the market in the coming days. After falling 0.6% last day, the US dollar index is now slightly down to 100.87.

This week, the US dollar took back its recent strong gains. If the non-agricultural sector cannot help, the US dollar is expected to fall against a basket of currencies on the weekly line.

Marc Chandler, global head of foreign exchange strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, said in the Research Report: "the US dollar has a large volume of transactions against most major currencies, but the overall tone is the consolidation trend of the US dollar."

On November 24, the US dollar index hit a 13-and-a-half-year high of 102.05. At that time, the expectation that the United States would expand fiscal expenditure and accelerate the tightening of monetary policy after Donald Trump took office stimulated the sharp rise of the US dollar. However, as other currencies were also boosted by various favorable factors and financial markets took a breather after the sharp rise of the US dollar, the rise of the US dollar subsided.

In early Asian trading on Friday, the USD / JPY fell to around 113.70 and rose to a nearly 10-month high of 114.83 last day.

Analysts pointed out that if the November employment report supports the view of accelerated U.S. economic growth, it may lead to a further rise in the dollar.

Daisuke karakama, market economist at Mizuho bank, said: "the USD / JPY has more room to rise because it fell sharply earlier this year compared with other currencies; the USD / JPY may test the 115 level, depending on the performance of the US employment report."

Bloomberg's chief U.S. economist wrote that the employment data in November will become the primary focus of the economic community in the coming week. Unless this data is extremely bad, it will hardly have an impact on the Fed's fixed rate hike in December. Now, the interest rate hike in December is increasingly seen as a certainty; The employment data will provide market participants with more information on economic activity by the end of the year.

The article points out that since the Federal Reserve is highly likely to increase interest rates in December, which has been reflected in the market trend, the employment data in November lost some of the mystery that affects the market trend. In view of the steady economic growth in the second half of the year, there is basically no reason to predict that there will be a significant deviation in the recent employment trend.

The article believes that in view of the imminent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, this employment data is more instructive for the degree of monetary policy tightening in 2017.

Although the market believes that it is almost certain that the Fed will raise interest rates from December 13 to 14, the focus is turning to next year. The trend of interest rate futures shows that the probability of raising interest rates again before June next year also reaches 65%.

Shaun Osborne, chief foreign exchange strategist of Bank of Nova Scotia in Toronto, said: "the key issue for the dollar in the coming weeks is the Federal Reserve; no matter how the non farm employment data performs, it should be a foregone conclusion to raise interest rates in December, and any change in the dot matrix will be crucial."

Osborne expects the dollar to strengthen further and expects the fed to raise interest rates three times next year.

With regard to this employment report, the Wall Street Journal published five key points to pay attention to:

1. Monthly employment data

So far this year, the average number of new jobs per month has reached 181000. However, the performance was inconsistent. It once fell to 14000 in May and rose sharply to 271000 in June. If the data is close to 180000, it will show that the pace of recruitment is steady and the employment is one step closer to the full employment goal of the Federal Reserve.

2. Salary growth

In October, the hourly wage of private sector workers increased by 2.8% compared with a year ago, the fastest growth rate since the recession. This increase outpaces inflation and increases household spending, which is expected to contribute to sustained growth in the broader economy. It also shows that as the job market tightens, workers can ask employers for a raise.

3. Unemployment

This year, the unemployment rate fell to near pre recession levels, indicating that Americans who want to work can find jobs. But broader indicators, including those forced to take part-time jobs and those who give up looking for jobs, remain high, suggesting that there is still idle in the job market.

4. Labor force participation rate

One of the most worrying developments in recent years has been the decline in the labour force participation rate. The decline is partly due to the retirement age of baby boomers. However, the participation rate of adult workers aged 25 to 54 also declined, and once fell to the lowest level in 30 years in late 2015. Since then, with the steady increase of jobs and the rise of wages, this proportion has continued to rise, but it is still suppressed. Another rise in this proportion will show that the continuous improvement of the job market has attracted more and more onlookers to return to the employment force.

5. The weather is fine

Remember hurricane Matthew? Daniel silver, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, pointed out in a report: "we believe that the hurricane may reduce employment by about 30000-40000 in October. Returning to less destructive weather will promote a similar increase in employment in November." it will be a significant change and may help increase employment in November.