AFG: according to the US dollar adjustment, there is a lot of pessimism before the oil producing Congress
发表时间:2016-12-05     阅读次数:     字体:【

Yesterday's comprehensive review:

On Tuesday (November 29), the United States released a series of beautiful economic data again, but these data have limited support for the dollar. Towards the end of the month, investors continue to make up for the dollar bulls established after trump was elected president. Coupled with the approach of OPEC meeting on Wednesday and non-agricultural data on Friday, the market is also very cautious. In terms of crude oil, just as OPEC is about to meet, Iran and Iraq are still deadlocked with Saudi Arabia. The market is very disappointed and still believes that it is difficult to reach an agreement at this meeting, so the oil price is under pressure, falling by 4%.

The US dollar index fell back to the 101 mark, and investors continued to adjust their positions at this week's OPEC meeting and before non-agricultural. Although a series of economic data released by the United States performed well, the easing of the Italian banking crisis supported the euro and put pressure on the dollar.

Gold prices ended lower in shock, weighed down by good US data and the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates. Gold prices closed lower on Tuesday, as the market expected US interest rates to rise and global economic growth sentiment to improve, which means that investors may favor risky assets such as the stock market. Since then, the gold price has left the intraday low because the US dollar index fell and adjusted.

Oil prices plunged 4%, and the market thought it difficult for OPEC to reach an agreement. Oil prices plunged 4% on Tuesday, and OPEC's plan to reach a production reduction agreement was blocked again. Iran and Iraq were still deadlocked with Saudi Arabia the day before the OPEC meeting.

With the recovery of personal consumption expenditure and government expenditure and the recovery of exports, the US GDP in the third quarter was revised upward to 3.2%, better than expected and initial value, and the growth rate hit a two-year high. Personal consumption expenditure in the United States also rose sharply to 2.8% in the third quarter.

The U.S. Economic Advisory Bureau reported on Tuesday that the U.S. consumer confidence index rose to 107.1 in November, the highest since July 2007. The index hit a 20 month high in September, but fell back to 100.8 in October.

On Tuesday, the S & P / case Schiller national house price index showed that house prices in the United States hit a record high in September, up 0.1% from the last record high recorded in July 2006, ending the worst period experienced by the real estate market since the great depression and releasing a positive signal for a new round of stable expansion.

As in September this year, nine local fed supported raising the discount rate in October. In November last year, the same nine local Federal Reserve agreed to raise the discount rate. At the monetary policy meeting a month later, the Federal Reserve decided to raise interest rates for the first time in nine years.

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve governor Powell said that since the November meeting of the Federal Reserve, the probability of raising interest rates in the United States has increased significantly. This is consistent with the information disclosed in the minutes of the November meeting of the Federal Reserve. At present, the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in December to exceed 95%.

New market outlook:

1. EUR / USD

1.jpg

Multi space boundary: 1.0645 (blue line)

Trading strategy: under 1.0645, bearish, the target price is 1.0580, and then 1.0538.

Alternative strategy: be bullish above 1.0645, set the target price at 1.0686, and then 1.0739

Technical comments: CCI is at a high level, there is a correction in the short term, and then continue to rise.

2. GBP / USD

2.jpg

Multi space boundary: 1.2498 (blue line)

Trading strategy: under 1.2498, bearish, the target price is 1.2388, and then 1.2312.

Alternative strategy: above 1.2498, bullish, the target price is set at 1.2539, and then 1.2597.

Technical comments: range shock market, close to the track, operate with caution.

3. USD / JPY

3.jpg

Multi space boundary: 112.34 (blue line)

Trading strategy: above 112.34, bullish, the target price is 113.18, and then 113.70.

Alternative strategy: under 112.34, bearish, the target price is set at 111.38, and then 110.34.

Technical comments: the running trend of RSI technical indicators is downward and may continue to decline within the day.

4. Gold

4.jpg

Multi space boundary: 1194.9 (blue line)

Trading strategy: under 1194.9, bearish, the target price is 1181.9, and then 1170.8.

Alternative strategy: above 1194.9, bullish, the target price is set at 1204.0, and then 1217.8.

Technical comments: pay close attention to the key pressure level of 1194.9.

Note: the blue horizontal line in the strategy diagram of this report represents the multi space dividing point; The green horizontal line represents the resistance level; The red horizontal line represents the support position; The black line represents the real-time price when the report is issued.

Risk tips:

Foreign exchange transactions, contracts for differences and other margin transactions have high risks and are not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level and risk tolerance. You may lose some or all of your money. Traders should clearly understand all risks associated with margin trading. If you have any questions, you can consult an independent financial adviser if necessary. The information of the consulting product comes from public data, and strive to make the content of the consulting product objective and fair. However, the views, conclusions and suggestions in this paper are only for reference.

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